Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 27th August 2025
“US Housing: Waiting On The Fed”
Weekly Risk Appetite Gauge 26th August 2025
"Buyer Exhaustion Creeping In?"
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 26th August 2025
“Liquidity Headwinds!”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 21st August 2025
“UK Inflation: Under the Bonnet –> Better Than Expected”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 20th August 2025
“US Housing Activity: Depressed”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 19th August 2025
“Japan’s Nikkei Breakout: Should It Be Chased?”
Weekly Risk Appetite Gauge 18th August 2025
"The Troubling Message of Volumes"
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 14th August 2025
“UK Jobs Market – How Bad Is It?”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 13th August 2025
“NFIB Recession Warning Signal”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 12th August 2025
"All Eyes on CPI –> Shelter vs. Tariffs”
Weekly Risk Appetite Gauge 11th August 2025
"Short Term Models Back on SELL"
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 8th August 2025
“Batting Against America -> China’s Improving Trade Balance”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 7th August 2025
“Gold: Rotate, Rotate, Rotate”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 6th August 2025
“Copper –> Tariffs out the Way. Fundamentals Supportive.”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 5th August 2025
“Chinese Housing: Any Signs of Life?”
Weekly Risk Appetite Gauge 4th August 2025
"Weekly Bearish Key Day Reversals"
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 1st August 2025
“Today’s NFP Data -> All Eyes on: ‘Those Not in the Labour Force’”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 31st July 2025
“Hawkish Fed – More (Data) Evidence of Tight Money”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 30th July 2025
“Q3 –> Liquidity Set to Tighten”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 29th July 2025
“Can Europe Continue to Outperform?”
Weekly Risk Appetite Gauge 28th July 2025
"Greed Rising Complacency Abounds"
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 25th July 2025
“US: ‘Skipping Car Payments’”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 24th July 2025
“OIL: The Saudi Surge”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 23rd July 2025
“OIL: From Geopolitics to Supply Glut”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 22nd July 2025
"China’s Monetary Momentum Builds – Markets Sniff a Sugar Rush"
Weekly Risk Appetite Gauge 21st July 2025
"BUILDing signs of Complacency/Bullish Positioning"
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 18th July 2025
“Britain – Is There Any Hope?”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 17th July 2025
“The Next China Shock”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 16th July 2025
“US Inflation: ‘Something for Everyone’”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 15th July 2025
“Fiscal Crisis?”
Weekly Risk Appetite Gauge 14th July 2025
“Consolidating? Or Rolling Over?”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 11th July 2025
“Complacency is Back!”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 10th July 2025
In the Foothills of the Sunlit Uplands
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 9th July 2025
“Energy Dominance – China or USA?”
Daily Dose of Macro & Markets, 8th July 2025
“Reciprocal Tariffs are Back!”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 27th June 2025
"Stay LONG SPX - Tighten Stop Loss"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 26th June 2025
"Stay LONG SPX - Uptrend Ongoing (near term)"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 25th June 2025
"Stay LONG - Breakout Likely Underway"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 17th June 2025
"Move (Opportunistically) LONG SPX on Weakness"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 16th June 2025
"WATCH & WAIT"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 13th June 2025
"WATCH & WAIT (All Eyes on OIL Price/Middle East Flare Up)"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 12th June 2025
"(1 - 2 wk) SHORT Case Brewing"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 11th June 2025
"CPI Data Today/Volatility Likely - Close LONG (for now)"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 10th June 2025
"Stay LONG SPX - Ongoing Upside Momentum Likely"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 9th June 2025
"Short Term Momentum To the Upside"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 6th June 2025
"Stay LONG SPX - ST Models Onside/Support Breakout Case"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 5th June 2025
"Stay LONG - Upside Breakout Expected"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 4th June 2025
"Move LONG - Models Support Upside Breakout"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 3rd June 2025
"S&P500 in middle of recent trading range; models are NEUTRAL; Uncertainty is High - Watch & Wait (for now)"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 2nd June 2025
"Most Key Assets Rangebound"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 30th May 2025
"Short Term Models NEUTRAL/Mid-Range - WATCH & WAIT"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 29th May 2025
"WATCH & WAIT"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 28th May 2025
"Close Final 1/4 SHORT - WATCH & WAIT"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 27th May 2025
"Stay SHORT/Reduce position size"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 23rd May 2025
"Stay SHORT (Bonds oversold rel. to Equities)"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 22nd May 2025
"Stay SHORT/Tighten Stop"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 21st May 2025
"Risk Reward Favours Staying SHORT SPX"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 20th May 2025
"Stay SHORT SPX - Models on SELL"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 19th May 2025
"SELL-off now on +17; start BUILDing SHORT positions"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 16th May 2025
"WATCH & WAIT for now - SELL case Brewing"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 14th May 2025
"continue to Watch & Wait (for now)"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 13th May 2025
"Froth Starting to Build"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 12th May 2025
"Weekend Pop on Trade Negotiations"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 9th May 2025
"Stay SHORT/Medium term models also shifting onto/towards SELL"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 8th May 2025
"Stay SHORT SPX - models on/close to SELL"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 7th May 2025
"All Eyes on Fed/Market Leadership of Past Month now Overstretched"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 6th May 2025
"Stay SHORT - Momentum Stalling?"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 1st May 2025
"Markets Moving into Key Technical Resistance Area/Various Drivers of 'Risk-On' Fading"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 29th April 2025
"BUILD SPX SHORT positions on Strength/Key Congestion Area"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 28th April 2025
"BUILD SHORT positions on strength"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 25th April 2025
"SELL Case BUILDing"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 24th April 2025
"WATCH & WAIT for now - SELL Case Likely Brewing"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 23rd April 2025
"NYSE Breadth Thrust Signal"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 22nd April 2025
"Stay SHORT SPX - Tighten Stop"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 17th April 2025
"Stay SHORT SPX"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 16th April 2025
"Close LONG SPX - Move SHORT"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 15th April 2025
"Stay LONG - Tighten Stop/Models Moving Fast"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 14th April 2025
"Relief Rally Ongoing"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 11th April 2025
"Move LONG SPX on weakness"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 10th April 2025
"Relief Rally Underway - WATCH & WAIT For Near Term Giveback"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 9th April 2025
"Continue to WATCH & WAIT (for now)"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 8th April 2025
"Price Action Post a Crash"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 7th April 2025
"WATCH & WAIT (for now)"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 4th April 2025
"Start BUYing on Weakness"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 3rd April 2025
"BUY Case BUILDing"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 2nd April 2025
"Tariffs Day - Message of the Models is Key"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 1st April 2025
"Models Edging Towards Collective BUY Signal"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 31st March 2025
"Market Momentum Switch - Key Factors We're Watching for"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 28th March 2025
"Start re-BUILDing LONG US Equity Positions"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 27th March 2025
"WATCH & WAIT -> Wave 2 Likely Ongoing"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 26th March 2025
"STAY LONG"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 25th March 2025
"Stay LONG/Reduce Position Size"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 24th March 2025
"Stay LONG SPX/Tighten Stop - Further Near Term Upside Likely"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 21st March 2025
"Stay LONG SPX - 'Wave 2' Likely Ongoing"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 20th March 2025
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge: "Stay LONG SPX - ADD to position on weakness"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 19th March 2025
"Increase SPX LONG position on weakness"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 18th March 2025
"Relief Rally Likely Underway - Start BUILDing LONG positions"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 17th March 2025
"Case BUILDing for 'Wave Two' Relief Rally"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 14th March 2025
"Stay SHORT DAX - Tighten Stop Given Rising Risk of Relief Rally"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 13th March 2025
"Stay SHORT DAX - Risk Off Regime Ongoing (for now)"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 12th March 2025
"Stay SHORT DAX - Tighten Stop Loss"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 11th March 2025
"Finely Balanced Argument - But STAY SHORT DAX"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 10th March 2025
"Stay SHORT DAX; Close S&P500 LONG Trade"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 7th March 2025
"Extreme US - German Divergence/Reminiscent of March 2000"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 6th March 2025
"SPX Held at Key Level (again) Yesterday"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 5th March 2025
"Keep BUILDing LONG S&P futures position - Markets Trying to Find a Floor"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 4th March 2025
"Key Support Range (around these levels); KEEP BUILDing LONGs on Weakness (Wave 2 Likely next few days)"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 3rd March 2025
"SPX 'Wave 2' Relief Rally Likely Brewing/Underway"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 28th February 2025
"Close SHORT - BUILD LONGs on weakness (Case for a Wave 2 Relief Rally Brewing)"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 27th February 2025
"Stay SHORT"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 26th February 2025
"Stay SHORT SPX & DAX (Reduce SPX position size)"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 25th February 2025
"Stay SHORT - Momentum Rolling"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 24th February 2025
"Stay SHORT/Models Still Biased Towards SELL"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 21st February 2025
"Stay SHORT/Tighten Stop loss"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 20th February 2025
"Keep BUILDing SHORT Positions"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 19th February 2025
"Broad based SELL Signals - Stay SHORT SPX & widen stop loss"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 18th February 2025
"Euphoric Price Action/SELL-off Indicator continues to BUILD above +20 Signal"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 17th February 2025
"Limited Commentary/US Market Holiday Today - Updated Models Attached"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 14th February 2025
"Stay with SHORT Trade - Keep Stop Loss Unchanged/Reasonably Tight"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 13th February 2025
"Momentum Rolling - Stay SHORT SPX"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 12th February 2025
"Stay SHORT SPX - All eyes on CPI"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 11th February 2025
"STAY SHORT SPX - Increase Size on Strength"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 10th February 2025
"ADD to SHORT SPX Position on Strength"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 7th February 2025
"SELL-off Risk BUILDing - increase SPX SHORT position on strength"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 6th February 2025
"Stay SHORT; Troubling Signs"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 5th February 2025
"Stay SHORT; SELL-off Indicator Still Signaling; Markets Rolling?"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 4th February 2025
"Move SHORT SPX futures - SELL-off indicator on +20"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 3rd February 2025
"Uncertainty Heightened. PLUS SELL-off Model/Medium term Models at High/SELL levels"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 31st January 2025
“SELL-off Model -> BUILDing Towards/Close to Key Signal"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 30th January 2025
“WATCH & WAIT”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 29th January 2025
“WATCH & WAIT”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 28th January 2025
“Stay SHORT SPX - tighten stop loss”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 27th January 2025
“Stay SHORT SPX - tighten stop loss"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 24th January 2025
“Stay SHORT SPX futures - clear/across the board SELL message from short term models”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 23rd January 2025
“Stay SHORT SPX - Short Term Models on SELL"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 22nd January 2025
“Models on SELL - Stay SHORT SPX futures"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 21st January 2025
“Move SHORT SPX futures (on strength/if forthcoming)"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 20th January 2025
“Watch & Wait (for now); Models Starting to Move onto SELL"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 17th January 2025
“S&P500 Likely Still in near term Downtrend"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 16th January 2025
“Models NEUTRAL - Leave Orders to MOVE LONG on Weakness (if forthcoming)"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 15th January 2025
“Models Moving - BUILD LONG Positions on Weakness"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 14th January 2025
“Models Moving - BUILD LONG Positions on Weakness"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 13th January 2025
“Risk Reward Changing - SPX Close to Key Support Levels"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 10th January 2025
“S&P500 Likely Still in near term Downtrend"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 9th January 2025
“Move SHORT SPX (on modest strength - if forthcoming)"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 8th January 2025
“Move SHORT SPX futures on (modest) strength"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 7th January 2025
“Start BUILDing SHORT Positions on Strength (if forthcoming)
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 6th January 2025
“Consolidation ongoing (since Nov)”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 3rd January 2025
”Continue to WATCH & WAIT (for now)”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 2nd January 2025
”Continue to WATCH & WAIT (for now)”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 31st December 2024
”Continue to WATCH & WAIT (for now)”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 30th December 2024
”WATCH & WAIT (for now)”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 27th December 2024
”Stay LONG SPX/Tighten Stop”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 24th December 2024
”Stay LONG SPX (increase size on weakness)”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 23rd December 2024
”Keep BUILDing LONG positions”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 20th December 2024
”Start BUILDing LONG - Bounce (or resumption of rally) likely to start in next 1 - 2 trading sessions”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 19th December 2024
”After That, Now What?”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 18th December 2024
”Keep BUILDing LONG SPX Positions - Consolidation Ongoing now for Past 2 Weeks”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 17th December 2024
"Keep BUILDing LONG Positions”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 16th December 2024
"Trading Day 11 in Dec; Start BUILDing LONG Positions”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 13th December 2024
"Re-instate LONG SPX futures position (on weakness)”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 12th December 2024
"S&P500 remains rangebound/WATCH & WAIT (for now)”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 11th December 2024
"Watch & Wait (for now)”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 10th December 2024
"Markets are Starting to Follow December's Usual Seasonal Pattern”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 9th December 2024
"Watch & Wait”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 6th December 2024
"Continue to WATCH & WAIT (for now) - Momentum Stalling”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 5th December 2024
"Continue to WATCH & WAIT - Models at High Levels”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 4th December 2024
"Close LONG futures positions. Risk reward deteriorating/seasonality challenging in 1H Dec”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 3rd December 2024
"Stay LONG - Tighten Stops”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 2nd December 2024
"Stay LONG”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 29th November 2024
"Further Upside Likely - Stay LONG US Equities”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 28th November 2024
"Stay LONG (NB US markets closed for Thanksgiving)”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 27th November 2024
"Stay LONG (both SPX & NDX)"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 26th November 2024
"Stay LONG US Equities"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 25th November 2024
"Increase LONG US Equity positions"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 22nd November 2024
"Stay LONG SPX (modestly tighten stop loss)”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 21st November 2024
"Stay opportunistically LONG SPX”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 20th November 2024
"Move opportunistically LONG SPX”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 19th November 2024
"BUY case BUILDing (WATCH & WAIT for now)”
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 18th November 2024
"WATCH & WAIT (for now)"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 15th November 2024
"STAY LONG SPX - Keep Unchanged/Tight Stop Loss"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 14th November 2024
"STAY LONG - US markets Consolidating Gains"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 13th November 2024
"Is Market Consolidating? or Rolling over?"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 12th November 2024
"Stay LONG US equities (for now)"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 11th November 2024
"Keep ADDing to LONG Positions"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 1st November 2024
"Stay SHORT SPX - Pullback Likely Underway"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 30th October 2024
"Stay SHORT SPX - unchanged stop"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 29th October 2024
"Stay SHORT SPX – unchanged stop"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 28th October 2024
"Stay SHORT SPX - momentum rolling?"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 25th October 2024
"Stay SHORT"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 24th October 2024
"Momentum (likely) Rolling Over - Move SHORT"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 23rd October 2024
"Keep Building SHORT Positions"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 22nd October 2024
"Move SHORT on strength"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 21st October 2024
"BUILD SPX SHORT positions (on strength)"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 18th October 2024
"Move SHORT SPX on strength"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 17th October 2024
"SELL Case Still Brewing"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 16th October 2024
"Cracks Starting to Emerge in the Uptrend/SELL-off Indicator on +23"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 15th October 2024
"Stay Opportunistically LONG SPX - modestly tighten stop loss
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 14th October 2024
"Rising Risk of Wave of Risk Aversion - Awaiting ST models To Move onto SELL (along with MT ones)"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 11th October 2024
"All Eyes on China Tomorrow"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 10th October 2024
"CPI day - Volatility Likely to be High"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 2nd October 2024
"Stay SHORT/Tighten Stop Loss"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 1st October 2024
"Stay SHORT SPX Futures"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 30th September 2024
"Re-instate SHORT positions (SPX futures)"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 27th September
"WATCH & WAIT"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 26th September
"Stay SHORT - Price Action Troubling, BUT Models on SELL. Tight Stop"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 25th September 2024
"Keep BUILDing SHORT positions in NDX100"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 24th September 2024
"Stay SHORT NDX - unchanged stop"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 23rd September 2024
"Stay SHORT NDX - unchaned stop"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 20th September 2024
"Stay SHORT NDX - keep unchanged stop loss"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 19th September 2024
"Stay SHORT NDX - bearish KDR in Philly SOX"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 18th September 2024
"Move SHORT NDX on Strength - All Eyes on the Fed"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 17th September 2024
"Move SHORT NDX on strength"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 16th September 2024
"SELL Case Brewing (WATCH & WAIT - for now)"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 13th September 2024
"Stand Back/WATCH & WAIT (for now)"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 12th September 2024
"Stay Opportunistically SHORT SPX"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 11th September 2024
"Weakness Broadening - Switch from SHORT NDX to SHORT SPX"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 10th September 2024
"Stay SHORT NDX - downtrend likely ongoing (for now)"
Daily Risk Appetite Gauge 2nd September 2024
"Markets poised - technically"
Reports by Category
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Latest reports
Longview Letter No. 150, 21st August 2025
"Drivers of Global Sector Leadership a.k.a. Sector Rotation - Entering into the ‘Sunlit Uplands’"
Longview on Friday 22nd August 2025
“AI Capex – How Economically Significant?”
Longview ‘Tactical’ Alert No. 93, 19th August 2025
"US Equity Market: Six Warning Signs"
The SHORT VIEW (& market positioning) 12th August 2025
"Gold or Bonds: Which Is It?"
Longview on Friday 8th August 2025
“Summer Turbulence Risk Still Present -> Is ‘Crash Risk’ Rising?”
The SHORT VIEW (& market positioning) 5th August 2025
"OIL: The ‘Saudi Surge’ & Soft Demand"
Longview on Friday 1st August 2025
"(MAG7) Alternatives are Emerging”